Trump threatens tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico. What products would be hit? – Complete Guide

President-elect Donald Trump appears to be making good on at least one of his campaign promises: slapping tariffs on imports from the United States’ biggest trade partners.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,” Trump wrote on Truth Social late Monday, pledging to keep those taxes in place until undocumented immigrants and drugs are blocked at the country’s borders.

In a follow-up post, he announced a 10% tariff on Chinese products coming into the U.S. until fentanyl and other drugs stop entering the country. China is the dominant source of chemicals used by Mexican cartels to produce fentanyl, according to U.S. authorities.

In 2023, more than $1.3 trillion worth of goods came from the three countries, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. In September 2024 alone, the last month for which data is available, the three countries accounted for 41.6% of total trade.

Read more: The Trump tariffs are coming for wine. American restaurants could die

Any tariffs imposed on foreign trade would likely raise prices for consumers since companies, by and large, will raise prices on goods to account for the extra costs. Goldman Sachs (GS) estimates that Trump’s latest tariff proposal would generate slightly less than $300 billion in revenue and boost the effective tariff rate by 8.6%, which would raise personal consumption expenditures (PCE) by 0.9%.

But a lot is still unclear about Trump’s tariff plan, including whether he’s bluffing or not. As Goldman Sachs analysts noted, Trump’s announcement seemed reminiscent of his first administration, when he repeatedly used the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic.

It’s also unknown whether all products would be targeted equally or whether some carve-outs would be made.

But if Trump’s tariffs are enacted — likely through executive order — here’s what could be affected.

Mexico

In 2023, Mexico was the U.S.’s biggest trade partner, narrowly beating out Canada, according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS). That year, the U.S. exported $322 billion worth of goods and imported $475 billion worth of goods from Mexico, according to the Census Bureau.

Likewise, the U.S. is Mexico’s biggest partner: 80% of Mexico’s exports head toward the U.S. each year. Canada is ranked in second place, with just 3% of exports, followed by China, Germany, and South Korea, according to BBVA Research.

According to the United Nation’s COMTRADE database, the U.S.’s biggest imports were vehicles and their parts, accounting for $130 billion. Other major imports include computers and electrical equipment, beverages, furniture, petroleum and coal products, and fruits and vegetables.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has signaled that she may be willing to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs with her own, saying at a news conference on Tuesday that, “One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses.” Most at risk would be automakers, including General Motors (GM), who have factories in or source materials from both countries.

Canada

Canada is a close No. 2 in terms of trade partners. In 2023, the U.S. exported $354 billion worth of goods and imported $418 billion worth of goods from Canada, according to the Census Bureau.

That year, 78% of Canada’s exports went to the U.S., while almost half if its imports came from the U.S., according to the CRS. As of 2022, the U.S. was also the largest source of foreign direct investment in Canada.

Canada is the biggest supplier of crude oil, natural gas, and electricity to the U.S. According to COMTRADE data, the country also supplied more than $56 billion worth of vehicles and vehicle parts, as well as billions of dollars worth of plastics, machinery, wood, charcoal, and aluminum, among other goods.

As is the case with Mexico, many automakers have plants in Canada — including Ford Motor Co. (F), GM, and Toyota Motor (TM) — that participate in their supply chains.

Late on Monday night, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with Trump, according to Reuters, which reports that they discussed trade and border security.

“It was a good discussion and they will stay in touch,” a source familiar with the situation told Reuters (TRI).

China

China trades less with the U.S. than Canada and Mexico, but it’s still a major partner.

In 2023, the U.S. exported $147 billion worth of goods and imported $426 billion worth of goods from Canada, according to the Census Bureau. That made it the nation’s fourth-largest trading partner and the second-largest source of U.S. imports, the CSR found in August.

However, the goods trade between the two countries fell by 17% compared to a year earlier. Imports fell by 20.4%, and exports fell by 5.1% in 2023 because of supply chain shifts out of China and a slowdown in the country, the CSR said.

According to COMTRADE data and the Observatory of Economic Complexity, some of China’s biggest exports include electronics, such as phones, computers, office machine parts, and semiconductors. Other major exports include toys and games, plastics, and vehicles.

“About the issue of US tariffs on China, China believes that China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature,” Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in a statement Monday. “No one will win a trade war or a tariff war.”